First of all, for you commenters below, I know you guys are pros. In fact, I listen to your show. I listen because I think you're smart guys and straight shooters. I do think, however, that I have seen a glimmer of your future though as someone living in SoCal on the coast.
The bubble of which I speak is at your high end. 500k and up. I really can't get those stats yet but I have been out there kickin the tires with Paul. Let's take downtown for example where you had all those rich Californians buying high end condos. There's tons of inventory over 500k sitting, and sitting, and sitting. I took the list prices from Zillow for downtown here. Now that is a disturbing trend that looks frigheningly like San Diego's condo market. (You can't tell from they chart but the period is from mid 2008 through the end of 2009)
Now, I'd love to have sales prices rather than list prices but I think they make my case either way.
Let's take Lakeway, where I made all of my offers. I'm serious, you can hear crickets around those homes selling for more than 500k. Here are the list prices trends there from mid 2008.
YIKES! That's list prices per square foot. Don't catch a falling knife they say in the stock investing business.
Now finally let's take the area that I really want to be in because I'm a golfer and I can play at Barton Creek. It's hard to tell much from the data below. My guess is that sales are few and far between in this area. I think BC is a lot like Solana Beach, where I live. People are wealthy enough to avoid selling so buyers and sellers are far apart, therefore there are not many sales. Look how eratic the graph is.
If you pros want to chime in with some better data on I'll gladly post it. What I need is 7 years of data by zip for SALES, not listings, on a rolling 12 month basis to take out seasonality.
Just for giggles here's Westlake per sq ft. Hmmmm.
That 8k from the gubment may be helping the average Austin home buyer, but it ain't doin much for the wealthy home buyer who still can't get a loan done (Appriasals?), whose business is struggling, and whose stock portfolio hasn't recovered.