Austin Feb Home Prices Down 3% over Feb 2009

 Sure sounds different than what the realtors say doesn't it?

- Mr. Bubble

	Sales	Change from Last Year	Median Price	Change from Last Year	Months' Inventory
Austin	1,276	up 7%	$182,000	down 3%	6.2
Dallas	2,707	down 9%	$149,200	up 1%	6.1
Fort Bend	510	down 7%	$188,700	up 8%	4.8
Fort Worth	538	up 5%	$106,000	down 3%	6.5
Houston	3,615	down 4%	$146,600	up 6%	6.6
Longview-Marshall	116	down 12%	$120,000	up 1%	8.9
Odessa	67	up 26%	$123,100	down 5%	5.8
San Antonio	1,239	up 7%	$140,700	down 1%	7.8
Temple-Belton	94	down 10%	$110,800	down 11%	6.7
Victoria	61	up 33%	$109,200	down 23%	6.6
Texas	13,064	down 2%	$141,100	up 2%	6.9

Attention Barton Creek, Westlake, Tarrytown, Downtown Sellers

The article speaks for itself but there's one thing they miss. The writers say that now is the best time to buy because rates are rising. Then they give this example of how your payment goes up as rates rise. Well, duh, don't you think prices will fall as these rates rise?

- Mr. Bubble

Castles for the Common Man - WSJ.com

Time to Storm the Castle?

At the High End, a Bit More Money Yields Lots More Home; 14 Acres and an Orchard

Daniel Horowitz is ready to bargain.
The 55-year-old trial lawyer is trying to sell a four-bedroom villa with marble imported from Italy, a winery and a fruit orchard on 14 acres in Lafayette, Calif. Mr. Horowitz already chopped the price to $3.2 million from $4 million, the amount he estimates having spent on the land and construction. "We thought it would sell right away," he says. But it hasn't, and he is willing to consider lower offers, he says.

Mansions for Sale

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Three years into the housing bust, steep discounts are emerging in the market for high-end homes, which had been the real-estate industry's last redoubt until now. Despite the budding economic recovery, demand for pricey properties is falling as potential buyers struggle to come up with money for big down payments and find it difficult to qualify for large mortgages. With buyers dropping out and homes languishing on the market, sellers are beginning to capitulate, cutting prices to move their properties.


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What Spin!

 All of you real estate cheerleaders should take note of this. Unemployment in Austin is RISING, rates are going up, foreclosures are increasing, and federal homeowner subsidies are ending.

- Mr. Bubble

Austin job losses moderate in February | Statesman Business Blog

By American-Statesman staff | Thursday, March 25, 2010, 09:19 AM 

The Austin area lost jobs at a 0.6 percent annual rate in February, compared to a 1.3 percent year-over-year drop in January.

The Texas Workforce Commission said the area’s unemployment rate was 7.2 percent, down from 7.6 percent in January but up from 6.6 percent a year earlier.

The steepest losses continue to be in the construction and manufacturing sectors, which combined lost 5,500 jobs between February 2009 and last month.
But the leisure and hospitality sector — such as hotels and restaurants — gained 5,000 jobs over the same period.

Statewide, the Workforce Commission said the unemployment rate was 8.2 percent last month, the level it has held at for four months in a row.


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Housing market's recovery appears at risk- Statesman

Glad to see the Statesman is taking note.

-Mr. Bubble

Housing market's recovery appears at risk

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More Bad News Via One of Austin's Pros

Here KLBJ real estate radio host John McClellan informs about another ominous sign for real estate sellers in 2010. (Great for buyers though!)

- Mr. Bubble

USDA in Jeopardy!

by John McClellan on March 16, 2010

It has recently been announced that the USDA loan program will be out of money by the end of April 2010. In any typical year the USDA loan program has plenty of funds to make loans through the end of the year. Over the last few years as other “0″ down loan programs have disappeared, USDA has stepped up to fill the void and provide affordable “0″ down loans for first time homebuyers across the nation. This increased demand for USDA loans has led to a shortfall the last two years in funds needed to keep this program solvent. Last year the stimulus money was used to bridge the funding gap and business went along as usual. This year however there is no stimulus money left to bridge the funding gap and it looks like that sometime in April we will be out of funds and USDA will stop issuing commitments until their normal refunding takes place (sometime in the late fall).

More here...

A Sober Realtor- Bill Morris

I always like to point out to realtors that they represent both buyers and sellers. They seem to act like they only represent sellers because they are loath to discuss the market down-cycle realistically...hence this blog. Anyway, for buyers, Austin's struggling market is great news and I want you to call honest realtors have have them make offers for you!

I came across Bill's blog post on building permits today and I thought I'd share it with you. He tells it like it is.

- Mr. Bubble

Austin Metro Building Permits

Much of what I have written about the “state of the market” in and around Austin has focused on resale homes.  New construction is obviously an important part of the market, and it’s a great barometer for confidence in the local economy, job growth, investment opportunities, etc.
This chart summarizes residential building permits issued from January 2000 to January 2010:

Austin Area Building Permits

Click the article title to link to Bill's blog...

Case and Point!

Can we please stop pretending that high end real estate has not collapsed in Austin? 


-Mr. Bubble

Spanish Oaks developers seeking new terms from lender
AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
Published: 9:36 p.m. Friday, March 5, 2010

Owners of Spanish Oaks, a 911-acre luxury residential and golf course development in Bee Cave, are in talks with their lenders to revise the terms of a $32 million loan and avert foreclosure.
Daniel Porter, Spanish Oaks' original developer, said that the problem arose when a recent appraisal valued the project at less than the amount required under the terms of the loan from Comerica Bank.
Porter said he couldn't disclose the appraisal amount.

More at the link above...

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So Jobs Dictate Demand for Homes Right?

OK, so everyone in real estate says, Mr. Bubble, our homes haven't declined in value because of all the job growth in Austin....

- Mr. Bubble

Job plunge in January is steepest of recession

Unemployment rate hits 7.6%; worse news may be coming

By Barry Harrell AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
The Austin metro area's unemployment rate rose in January, according to the Texas Workforce Commission, and more bad job news for the state could be on the way.
The five-county Austin-Round Rock metro area had 10,000 fewer jobs in January than it did a year earlier. That was a 1.3 percent drop — the steepest during the recession began in December 2007. A key reason was the layoff of retail workers hired for the winter holidays, as well as continuing cuts in construction and manufacturing, which have been hit hard during the downturn.
The area's unemployment rate was 7.6 percent.
That's a jump from 7 percent unemployment in December and compares with a jobless rate of 6.5 percent in January 2009.

More at the link above


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Buyers Shift More Firmly Into Driver's Seat During January

Buyers Shift More Firmly Into Driver's Seat During January

For the second month in a row, homebuyers across much of the country negotiated bigger discounts off the last listing price of homes than they had the prior month.

Buyers in the United States paid a final sale price of 2.8%, or $5,823, less than the last listing price during January, up from a median discount of 2.7% in December and 2.6% in November. December marked the first time in 11 months that buyers gained back negotiating power; for much of 2009, buyer discounts shrank as real estate markets across the country improved.

More via the link above...

Austin Real Estate Blog: Austin Real Estate Sales Hits the Skids

I agree with this author except for one thing. I don't think buyers will wait for rates to rise and the tax credit to expire to start offering less for real estate in Austin. That information will immediately be reflected in prices offered. In other words, prices have already cratered, that's why sales are scarce over 400k.

- Mr. Bubble

Austin Real Estate Blog: Austin Real Estate Sales Hits the Skids

So to get out of the way the one positive factor this month, compared to last year at this time sales are up, Inventory is down, median and average prices are up. Sounds great right. But there is a huge huge caveat to that. January 2009 was the worst sales month in 10 years. And January 2010 is the second worst month in 10 years. Personally our sales were down in January and I thought we had just had a bad month. I was oddly relieved to see that the whole market was down.

Read the rest of this blog post via the link above...


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